A sneaky way to take back the Senate
Ah my first foray into politics...
I was reading Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/) today. It's a good site, actually runs down House and Senate races and handicaps them; my #1 gripe is that it isn't updated enough (3 stories in 3 weeks is a rarity). In his article on the Dems chance to retake the Senate, he rated it as a relative long-shot due to their need to pick up 6 out of 7 vulnerable GOP seats as well as hold all of their own. This was a good point, but it made me think of another possible strategy.
What is the greatest recent political victory for the Dems other than the 2000 Presidential election? I'd have to say when Jim Jeffords bolted the GOP, handing the Senate back to it's rightful owner (I refuse to condone the election of Norm Coleman). If I were running things, my #2 priority behind elections in PA, OH and Montana would be having a chat with some of the northeast/liberal House and Senate Republicans, who have to be angry that their agenda (which is by and large a good one) is being completely ignored. Some BBG/LATimes poll data came out today showing that Bush only has support of about 63 percent of self-described "moderate Republicans"; isn't it possible that some of the 37 is represented in Congress? Take a look at how the American Conservative Union http://www.acuratings.org/ rates these Senators (for reference, Sam Brownback (R/KS) is a 94 lifetime and Ted Kennedy is a 3.
- Lincoln Chafee - R/RI - 41
- Olympia Snowe - R/ME - 51
- Susan Collins - R/ME - 57
- Arlen Specter - R/PA - 44 (although he "improved" to a 75 in 2004, the last year they publish)
- Ben Campbell - R/CO - 55
- Judd Gregg - R/NH pulled a 79, but I think they let Katherine Harris do the tally...
In any case, my message to the 6 of you I just mentioned is this: You are no longer a Republican. Maybe you used to be. But you're not anymore - it's about time you accepted it. Lincoln, you didn't even vote for your party's presidential candidate! Olympia and Arlen, you guys are spearheading an investigation into wiretap-gate and given it bipartisanship.! Judd, your #1 issue is the environment! Susan, you're rated 83% by NARAL pro-choice America. Ben, I don't really know anything about you, but if you buck your party on 45% of the ACU votes you must be a good guy! Isn't it time for to start voting your conscience.
posted by El Jefe @ 6:42 PM
1 Comments:
I actually think that this strategy of winning over moderate Republicans could work on a larger scale, all the way up to the general electorate. Despite the unity of the GOP, there are actually a lot of fault lines within the party. The GOP seems to be divided among these groups: Businessmen, the Greedy Rich, Libertarians, 19th Century Worshipers, Neo-Cons, Isolationists, demur religios, and the zealot religious.
All but two of these can be grouped into moderate camps and extreme camps. Businessmen want a healty environment for commerce, the Greedy Rich want tax breaks and special favors. Libertarians don't like an intrusive government, 19th centry worshipers think the New Deal in unconstitutional and want to take us back to the weak federal government of the age of robber barons. Demur religious people believe in humanitarianism and charity, religious zealots believe that they are the only righteous people and that the apocalypse is near. The only real complete contrast is between the Cheney/Rumsfeld-style neocons and the Pat Buchanan-style isolationists.
I think the Democrats could make a strong play for the moderate camps, especially the businessmen and the libertarians, and possibly the demur religious. To do so, though, would require abandoning the far left side of the party in favor of a party in the mold of Bill Clinton. Frame the GOP as the party of the extremists, welcome the moderates in from the other party.
In many ways, the extreme side of the GOP could help this effort. The Dems will have to stop their opposition-only strategy and start offering constructive plans to issues they care about. When they do, they will find the extreme sides of the GOP will block their proposals and nothing will be done. But at least over time they can build up a track record of presenting good ideas and can appeal to the moderates who might agree with them to join them to get things done.
Best place to get business would be health care and retirement. Business is terrified of these rising health care costs because they are stuck with employer-based insurance. Play up a single-payer health system as a way of releiving the burden on business and allowing more efficient allocation of workers. Same kind of thing with retirement, though I don't have a specific plan in my head right now.
Libertarians should be able to be won over by appealing to their wariness about Bush's secrecy over just about everything, as well as the wiretaping scandal, the Patriot Act, etc.
Demur religious will be the hardest to win over because of abortion and gay rights. Instead of spending all their time talking about Roe v. Wade, the Dems should be proposing ideas to help reduce the number of abortions, such as expanding adoption services and promoting birth control. The gay issue is tougher. But in general, Dems should speak to the teachings of Jesus, not the miracles and try to win back the voters and leaders who think the Democratic party is anti-religion.
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